Aerial war emerging in Tripoli as neither side gains ground
The clashes between the Libyan National Army (LNA) and anti-LNA forces continue, with no significant changes in territorial control. Heavy clashes continue in Ain Zara, Khallet al-Farjan and around Airport road. The LNA continues to dominate aerial attacks, specifically targeting ammunition depots used by anti-LNA forces in Tripoli and along the coastal road up to the eastern entrances of Zawiyya. Of significant importance, the LNA appears to have shifted its focus away from air-to-surface support for LNA troops to targeting Government of National Accord (GNA) munition stores and air capabilities. The GNA-aligned forces and the Misrata Aerial College continue to focus on disrupting LNA supply routes. The increased number of LNA airstrikes targeting strategic locations in Tripoli, especially ammunition stores, suggest that the LNA is making a post-Eid push to advance towards the centre of Tripoli. Reports indicate anti-LNA forces are building defensive positions in the al-Swani area, signalling an LNA assault in that area is also likely. Likewise, unconfirmed reports suggest the GNA Western Military Region is planning to lead an assault towards Ghariyan.
However, significant territorial changes on the ground over the next week remain unlikely – unless there is a significant international intervention or statement of support from the US or Russia for either side. As it stands, with the anti-LNA and LNA forces locked in a military stalemate south of Tripoli and the international community divided, the conflict is likely to be protracted for the foreseeable future. On 9 June, the World Health Organisation (WHO) reported the deaths of 653 people as a result of the clashes in Tripoli, 41 of them civilians. Another 3,547 have been wounded, 126 of them civilians.