Viewing posts from: House of Commons Briefings

16
Sep
2019

It’s the Economy Stupid: How Libya’s Civil War Is Rooted in Its Economic Structures

Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) releases Jason Pack’s overarching meta-analysis of the uniqueness (and unique dysfunctionality) of the Libyan economy:  It’s the Economy Stupid: How Libya’s Civil War Is Rooted in Its Economic Structures.

The first half of the paper Pack engages in a philosophical and historical exploration of the Libyan economy and its institutions — seeking to explain how and why it is so radically different from any other economy on earth. At the end of this quest, I postulate that the Libyan economy is dominated by Semi-Sovereign Economic Institutions, which are more powerful than the rival Libyan governments and constitute the very crux of Libya’s Qadhafian inheritance and current brokenness.
In the second half of the paper, he puts forth an economy-driven approach to mediating the Libyan conflict, arguing that although full scale reform is not yet possible, a bold push for financial transparency on behalf of international actors, the leaders of Libya’s semi-sovereign economic institutions and Libyan civil society could tip the balances away from conflict and towards a new social contract.
05
Oct
2018

How a New Political Process Could Help Tackle Security Challenges

In his latest article published in SWP’s October report, Wolfram Lacher proposes a new negotiating framework to address Libya’s political and security issues in the aftermath of two major crises. First, Eastern-based General Haftar’s move towards oil resources in June 2018, and the violent militia fighting in Tripoli in September 2018. According to Lacher, Libya’s latest crises highlight the urgent need for renegotiating the current dysfunctional power sharing agreement to enable progress towards elections. Lacher writes :

Taken together, the current situation offers an opportunity to shed an institutional framework that has prevented political progress for too long, and to design a new negotiating process that closely links talks over power-sharing with efforts to reunify economic and security institutions.

Lacher describes his proposition for a new power-sharing framework, advocating that in order to be more functional, such an agreement should lay on Libya’s actual political and military forces rather than on the country’s defunct institutions. The aim of such a framework would be to create a new executive authority with detailed security arrangements, along with the provisions for the reunification of the sovereign economic institutions. Lacher argues :

New security arrangements for Tripoli should take the form of a roadmap, starting with immediately feasible steps and moving towards the gradual integration of rival local forces into common command structures and units. For the implementation of such a roadmap to succeed, it will be critical that Western and regional governments strongly support UNSMIL by exerting pressure on violators. […]This requires a departure from the approach that prevailed over the past two years, during which wary Western governments and the UN avoided challenging the status quo so that they could operate in Tripoli and have an official interlocutor in the GNA. The events over the past months have shown that this approach has now reached its limits.

In this article, Wolfram Lacher presents a well-thought argument for a viable solution to tackle Libya’s political, security and economic issues, inspired from the realities of the ground.

Click here to read the article

14
Dec
2016

Of Levant and Leviathan: Cautionary Tales from a Turbulent World

In an interesting article for the LA Review of Books, Muhammad Idrees Ahmad analyses the comparisons which continue to be made between the interventions in Iraq and Syria and the NATO No Fly Zone in Libya. He reviews the recent UK Parliamentary Committee report on the UK’s decision to participate in the NFZ, and questions the motivations behind the report, the exclusively non-Libya experts who gave evidence to the committee, and the research methods used to corroborate claims.

For the claim that Gaddafi’s threat to civilians was exaggerated, the report drew on the opinion of think-tanker Alison Pargeter, who insisted that despite his eliminationist rhetoric, Gaddafi was unlikely to “launch some widespread massacre” — because he had prefaced his threats with “I’m going to go for the bearded ones.” She adds, however, that “in Gaddafi’s head, this was an Islamist rebellion, and he was going to go and hunt down those who were responsible.” In other words: Gaddafi was only going to kill bearded ones; but everyone that opposed him he presumed bearded (a serviceable presumption for the age of the “War on Terror,” one also embraced by Assad). Her co-panelist George Joffe of King’s College London echoed her views, though the report makes no mention of the fact that Joffe’s past work was underwritten by Saif Gaddafi’s foundation or that Joffe had written encomia for the Colonel’s son as a would-be reformer.

Click here to read the full article.

 

 

28
Nov
2016

Haftar in Moscow to Request Arms and Military Support

According to an article in DEBKAfile published today, General Khalifa Haftar visited Moscow over the weekend with a request for Russian arms and military support for his Libyan National Army (LNA) forces. Putin is reportedly offering Hafter’s army jet fighters, attack helicopters, armoured vehicles and assorted missiles as well as air support for fighting the Islamic State. The article claims that:

President Vladimir Putin began to envision a second Mediterranean base on the coast of Benghazi, twin to Hmeimim in Syria’s Latakia. This one would accommodate Russian naval as well as air units and be located 700km from Europe…. At all events, Russian planes in Hmeimim are capable of covering the 1,500km distance to Libya, while the Russian carrier Admiral Kusnetzev is anchored not far away, off Syria’s Mediterranean shore. Both are therefore available for operations in support of the Libyan general.

Click here to read the full article.

16
Sep
2016

Libyan Reactions to UK Committee Report – We Were Grateful for Airstrikes

Rema Abdulaziz writes an opinion piece for the Independent countering the wave of negative press former UK PM David Cameron has received since the House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee published its report on Tuesday entitled ‘Libya: Examination of intervention and collapse and the UK’s future policy options’. Abdulaziz argues that although Cameron should have had more of a plan in place after Gadhafi was deposed, the airstrikes were welcome and if anything should have come sooner.

The fact that our dictator had access to these kinds of funds made the playing field spectacularly uneven. If he had been allowed to continue his reign of terror with an unending supply of troops from throughout the continent, there’s no doubt that he would have retaken every city in Libya the same way. The people of Zawiya were yearning for an intervention to happen earlier like it did in Benghazi. Months of suffering were endured in Zawiya before it was liberated again. The air strikes were welcome, and they should have come sooner.

To many western people, this doesn’t make a lot of sense. Comparisons with Iraq, for example, always seem to be used, and the terms “imperialism” and “neo-colonialism” thrown around (mainly by white British people attempting to advocate on my behalf). But every situation is different, and Muammar Gaddafi was a genocidal maniac. Public executions and “disappearings” were common under his dictatorship; executions were even broadcast during children’s TV programmes. The secret police in Libya were so terrifying that nobody dared speak a word against Gaddafi in public, and their reach extended into the UK.

The full article can be accessed here.

29
Aug
2014

Thinni Resigns Again, Tries to Breathe Life into HoR

In a bid to bring new energies and a fresh allure to the HoR camp, Caretaker Prime Minister Abdullah Thinni has resigned from his post along with all the members of his government. The decision came hours after news emerged about the possible resignation of six ministers from his government.

In his final statement, the caretaker government reiterated the status of the HoR as the sole legitimate institution inside the country, alongside the Constitutional Assembly, and framed its resignation as a move designed to allow the election of a new government. The HoR has already shortlisted five candidates for the Prime Minister Office: outgoing PM Thinni, Ashur Shuwail, Omar Abassi, Ali Al-Tikbali and the Libyan Ambassador to the UAE Aref Al-Nayed; the Libya Herald put together a brief backgrounder on each of them. Meanwhile, in Tripoli, GNC-appointed Prime Minister al-Hassi is said to have selected seven ministers for his own government, including GNC President Abu Sahmain.

Thinni’s resignation should be seen in the context of the increasing internal pressure the HoR is facing, due to the recent military developments which gave the Misratan/GNC camp the upper hand in the ongoing confrontation. In this sense, the presence of Thinni among shortlisted candidates for the PM position should be seen as a proof that his resignation does not mark a fracture between him and the HoR, but rather an attempt to salvage the internal standing of this institution by speeding up the election of the new government.

An increased sense of urgency with regards to the ongoing Libyan political crisis can also be perceived through the statement issued by the EU, which openly rejects the GNC and its government, labeling them as illegitimate, and through the call issued by France for the UN to provide ‘exceptional support’ to Libya and its transition process. At this stage, it seems that all actors outside of the Misratan camp are working against the potential consolidation of two rival and equally non-representative political centers of power. However, it will now be up to the HoR to select an inclusive government, capable of acting and being perceived as a national salvation one, so as to avoid the further consolidation of factors potentially leading up to a widespread civil war or to a deepened socio-political fragmentation of the country.

29
Apr
2014

Invitation to Launching of Atlantic Council Report “Libya’s Faustian Bargains”

You are cordially invited to a Panel Discussion held at noon on May 5th at The Atlantic Council’s offices at 1030 15th Street, NW, 12th Floor (West Tower) Washington, DC.    Jason Pack, Karim Mezran, and William Zartman will discuss the appeasement cycle in today’s Libya and how the central authorities can attempt to break free.  We will also discuss the role that international actors can play in the process.  For a formal invite click here.

17
Sep
2013

The Struggle for the Post-Qadhafi Future Presented at the House of Commons

Last week I gave a talk for the Council for the Advancement of Arab British Understanding at the House of Commons on the topic of the struggle for the post-Qadhafi future. Also present in the panel were former Libyan Islamic Fighting Group commander Noman Benotman, now with the Quilliam Foundation, and Nicholas Pelham, correspondent for The Economist. Noman Benotman also authored one of the chapters in the book I edited The 2011 Libyan Uprisings and the Struggle for the Post-Qadhafi Future from where I drew a number of themes for last week’s talk.

As I described the development of the increasing power struggles and social and political fragmentation after Qadhafi:

“Developments since 2011 have re-created those power relationships that prevailed for more than a century, as in the process of defeating Gaddafi Libyan society was mobilised along local/regional/tribal/and religious cleavages and the militias that came into being were united only for the purpose of ousting the dictator. 

“When he was gone the possibility for a transformative discourse that would unite Libyans and help them exit the centre/periphery trap existed but it was not sufficiently seized upon by the new leadership.”

While transcripts or video of the event is not yet available, an event summary with many quotes from the proceedings is available here from the Tripoli Post.

08
May
2013

Britain Should Take the Lead in Libya

In response to the current crisis in Tripoli, I am unsurprisingly calling for more engagement and support for the Zidan government from the West.  Otherwise it will be too late.  In Britain Should Take the Lead in Libya I am putting forth the case for strong engagement from Cameron to try to build an international coalition to help in capacity building in Libya.

For the international community the attack against the French Embassy and the radicalization of the conflict between the militias and government institutions must serve as a wake-up call, and remind them that the gains of the NATO-led intervention are on the verge of being undone.

It is against this inauspicious backdrop of a full-fledged ‘struggle for post-Qaddafi Libya’– and not simply that of Mali backlash– that last month’s bombing, this week’s militia occupations, and passing of the destructive political isolation law must be understood. The perpetrators of the attack fully understand Western reluctance to engage in nation-building post-Iraq and Afghanistan and undoubtedly intended the bombing as a message to the foreign diplomatic and business communities to stay away from Libya.

Britain remains one of (if not the) world’s expert in the field of capacity building and Cameron has the political links to Obama and the relevant Middle Eastern players (Turkey, UAE, and Qatar) that Hollande lacks. Present conditions, however, demonstrate that the time for hesitation is over and that Britain should occupy the key position in forging a new international coalition for engagement.

12
Dec
2011

Libya in Transition: Implications and Opportunities for Britain

An Africa All Party Parliamentary Group event in the House of Commons co-hosted by the Royal Africa Society and Libya-Analysis.com and consisting of two Closed Briefing Sessions for MPs and one Open Session for MPs and the public.

The Complete Program (PDF)

Open Session

Libya’s New Role in the World
Monday December 12th, 7-9pm
House of Commons, Committee Room 15

Read a summary of this session.
Listen to this session (MP3)

The audio of the session begins at around 37:00 minutes of the file. My 12 minute speech begins at 1:10:00, I get attacked for concieving the militias as a threat to stability in Libya by a Libyan/British woman who I know from St. Antony’s at 1:24:50, I respond to my attacker at 1:38:15, get my viewpoint supported by the most knowledgeable Libyan in the room at 1:45:25, comment on capitalism and the Old Guard in Libya at 1:54:10,  and give my closing remarks about job creation at  2:15:25.

Closed Briefing Sessions for MPs

The State of the ‘Transition’ and Britain’s Role
Tuesday, November 29th, 11am–12:30pm
The House of Commons, Meeting Room M

Business Opportunities for British Companies
Wednesday December 7th, 10am-11:30am
The House of Commons, Meeting Room M

Read the substantive points raised in these sessions as submitted to HMG’s Foreign Affairs Select committee as written evidence.