Viewing posts from: ISIS in Libya

13
Jan
2021

Terrorists and armed groups persist in Libya’s South

Jason Pack, the President of Libya Analysis, recently published a report commissioned by the NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence (StratCom) on terrorist and armed groups in the Libyan South. Co-authored with Stefano Marcuzzi, the report explores the resilience of terrorist and armed group activity in the Fezzan region of south-west Libya. Despite airstrikes and ground attacks by Libyan and international actors, terrorist networks have thrived in the Fezzan, collecting revenue from criminal activity, including smuggling and human trafficking. In particular, the report considers the persistence of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG) and the Islamic State (ISIS) in Libya’s South. The report will be an invaluable guide for policy-makers and researchers alike.
Please click here to read the full report.
13
Oct
2020

The prominent role of foreign powers in Libya

Writing for NewLines Magazine in an article published on 11 October, Tarek Megerisi analyses which foreign powers have influenced the course of the Libyan crisis the most since the fall of the Qadafi regime, and their strategies. As a result, Megerisi highlights the initial prominent role of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and recounts the progressive involvement of Turkey and Russia, now acting as the leading foreign powers in Libya.

Click here to read the full article.

19
Aug
2020

Study warns that ISIS remains ‘persistent threat’ in Libya

On 7 August, Azeem Ibrahim of the United States War College published a study warning that without an end to Libya’s conflict, ISIS may once again rise up. In the study, Ibrahim asserts that ISIS has retained its capacity to launch ‘small-scale’ attacks in Libya, and that since its removal from Sirte in 2016, most of its activity had moved to Fezzan in Libya’s southern desert. Ibrahim claims that ISIS has been increasingly embedding itself in illegal smuggling networks, and that the longer Libya’s conflict prevents a central government from being able to adequately monitor and combat ISIS, the greater the risk that ISIS could stage ‘a large-scale resurgence.’

Click here to read the full report.

19
Nov
2019

As Russia’s influence grows in Libya, the U.S should revise its Libyan strategy

In an article published on 18 November with National Interest, Emily Estelle looks at Russia’s growing presence and influence in Libya, arguing that Russia is currently capitalizing on the void left by the U.S in Libya. For Estelle, the U.S should react to Russia’s Libyan policy by revising its own strategy for the country.

Click here to read the article.

02
Oct
2019

US Launches 4 airstrikes in 10 days killing 43 ISIS fighters in southern Libya

US Africa Command (AFRICOM) launched 4 aerial attacks over the course of 10 days in southern Libya, killing 43 ISIS fighters in total. Below are details of each of the aerial attacks.

  • On 29 September, AFRICOM conducted an airstrike in southern Libya killing 7 ISIS fighters.
  • On 27 September, AFRICOM conducted an airstrike targeting a fleeing ISIS group in the Indian Complex in Sebha southern suburb, killing 17 people.
  • On 24 September, AFRICOM conducted an airstrike against Libya-ISIS group at a farm hideout southern Jizzawo village, 30 kilometres east of Murzuq, killing 11 fighters.
  • On 19 September, AFRICOM claimed to have killed 8 ISIS-Libya fighters in the vicinity of Murzuq.

After several months of no aerial attacks on ISIS in Libya, US AFRICOM has launched multiple strikes in quick succession at several locations in southern Libya. The airstrikes suggest the group has either recently grown in size and capabilities, or has gained notable personnel to warrant these operations. The number of fighters allegedly killed in these airstrikes suggests that this will represent a setback to ISIS-Libya in the region. However, the instability and absence of functioning security apparatus in the region is likely to persist, not only allowing ISIS-linked groups to continue to compete for a foothold in the region, but also fuelling local recruitment in the medium-long term.

At a strategic level, AFRICOM’s recent airstrikes could strengthen and legitimise Libyan National Army (LNA) rhetoric about fighting terrorist groups in the South, which it has used to justify its presence and military activity in the region. On the flipside, AFRICOM’s statements that it is coordinating with the Government of National Accord (GNA) to carry out the aerial attacks, and likely gaining the intelligence needed to do so from GNA-linked sources, could strengthen the GNA’s position in the region as the only legitimate authority in Libya with whom the US will coordinate.

30
Jul
2019

UN report highlights persisting activity of the Islamic State in Libya

On 29 July, the United Nations (UN) made available online the the twenty-fourth report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team concerning Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and the Levant (Da’esh), Al-Qaida and associated individuals, groups, undertakings and entities. The report assesses the threat posed by terrorist organisations such as Al-Qaida and the Islamic State in the light of recent developments such as the fall of the Islamic State caliphate in March 2019. Regarding Libya, the report notes that Islamic State related activities gained momentum over the course of the past months as the political and security crisis deepened in Libya.

Click here to read the full report.

15
Jul
2019

Understanding Israel’s involvement in Libya

For Consortium News, Giorgio Cafiero discusses Israel’s involvement in Libya. He highlights that Israel’s policy towards Libya joins the policies adopted by several Arab states through support to Eastern-Libya based Khalifa Haftar

Click here to read the article.

17
Jun
2019

Podcast of ECFR Paris-held conference on Libya released

The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) shared a podcast of its conference held in Paris on 5 June to discuss the current crisis in Libya. Tarek Megerisi, Mary Fitzgerald and Virginie Collombier participated in the event.

Click here to listen to the podcast.

28
May
2019

ICG report advocates for political dialogue between Libyan factions

On 23 May 2019, International Crisis Group (ICG) published a report on the conflict in Libya, providing a set of recommendations to move beyond the present stalemate. Their report insists on the importance for the two rival factions to compromise and come to an understanding through political dialogue. If not, ICG fears the escalation of the conflict which will plunge Libya in a more chaotic situation, in which external actors will also be embarked.

Click here to read the report.

15
May
2019

Tensions rise in Sirte as LNA mobilises near the city

On 11 May, the spokesperson for the Sirte Protection Force (SPF), Taha Hadid, asserted that the SPF was ready to repel any Libyan National Army Forces (LNA) attack on the city. This follows local sources reporting the deployment of LNA units in the outskirts of the city in the early evening, waiting for orders to advance on the city. Sources on the ground report that residents in Sirte are on high alert and many are preparing to leave the city in anticipation of looming conflict. The SPF has also reported Islamic State (ISIS) forces moving in the area south of Sirte in recent days, though details are limited.

The LNA has failed to make the inroads it expected into the capital, and needs to secure its supply lines in order to maintain its positions. Controlling Sirte and/ or the area around the city would allow it to better protect these routes. Any major assault or provocation on Sirte would likely see a swift response from Misratan forces based there or from Misrata itself. If mobilized, Misratan forces would likely be able to deflect the LNA forces given the limited number of LNA troops available to support such an attack. However, a significant Misratan mobilization to Sirte may result in Misratan forces being pulled away from Tripoli, leaving the capital’s defenses vulnerable. On the other hand, Misratans fighting in Tripoli may be reluctant to leave the city for fear they would lose their advantage to other western militias. Either way, a significant LNA move on Sirte could expose existing divisions within Misrata and the anti-LNA forces more generally, even if the LNA cannot take the city.

15
May
2019

Fighting continues in Tripoli with few significant territorial changes

The Libyan National Army’s (LNA) “Operation Flood of Dignity” against Government of National Accord (GNA) -aligned forces in southern Tripoli continued throughout the first week of Ramadan, with no significant changes in territorial control. The number of incidents and resulting casualties has slightly decreased compared to the previous week. Ground clashes continue around the Tripoli International Airport, al-Twaisha, Hay Funduq al-Sharef, al-Hira, Wadi al-Rabea, Ain Zara, Zatarna and Khallet Furjan. LNA airstrikes, predominantly at nighttime, targeting GNA-aligned forces’ alleged arms and weapons caches continue, with significant targets including Janzour Knights positions in western Tripoli. The LNA continues to operate from bases in Ghariyan, Tarhouna, Bani Walid and Sabratha, with the parallel government Minister of Interior, Ibrahim Bushnaf, restructuring security arrangements in these towns to consolidate LNA control. Reports continue to suggest that GNA militias are preparing a counter offensive, including an assault on Tarhouna, Ghariyan and possibly Bani Walid, but it is unclear when it will be launched.

With the GNA and LNA locked in a military stalemate south of Tripoli, and the international community divided, the conflict is likely to remain protracted for the foreseeable future. Military action in and around Tripoli is likely to persist throughout Ramadan, despite calls by the international community for a ceasefire. Night-time airstrikes by the LNA are likely to increase throughout the month. The GNA Western Military Region will pursue its attempts to severe the LNA’s supply lines and continue to defend against the LNA’s offensive.

15
May
2019

EU calls for immediate ceasefire

On 13 May, the European Union Council released a statement calling for an immediate ceasefire and reiterated that there was no military solution to the Libyan crisis. It urged all parties to stop any actions threatening the political process and to recommit to a political solution. The statement called the Libyan National Army (LNA)’s assault on Tripoli a “threat to international peace and security.”

The Government of National Accord (GNA)’s efforts to apply pressure on European powers to provide it with support and legitimacy appear to be backfiring and rather than nurturing its relationships, it instead appears to be actively antagonising them. Moreover, the GNA’s longstanding inability to control militias aligned with it or even identify those acting on its behalf has been a significant factor hampering the international community’s willingness to unite behind it. A UN staff member indicated that during the emergency United Nations Security Council (UNSC) session, it was “difficult” to identify the armed groups acting under the GNA and “the extent of their subordination to political authority.” The GNA’s international support base is becoming increasingly limited. While countries such as the UK, Italy and Germany continue to call for an end to the conflict and have previously tried to name Khalifa Haftar as the main aggressor in the escalating conflict, explicit international support for the GNA seems to be limited to Qatar and Turkey. The LNA’s offensive benefitted from direct regional and international support from Egypt, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, France, and Russia. In Libya, the GNA is perceived to be purchasing its allies. Its reliance on money to buy loyalty is drying up liquidity in some banks, which is resulting in social discontent. While Serraj remains the GNA figurehead, in practice anti-Haftar military figures, predominantly from Misrata, have taken over GNA politics in Tripoli and this dynamic is likely to negatively impact the GNA’s legitimacy in the future.

Click here to read the statement.

10
May
2019

ISIS’s resilience

On 8 May, Voice of America published the second article of a four parts series on the Islamic State (ISIS). In this piece, Jeff Seldin reports that, in spite of the defeats experienced over the past months, the number of foreign fighters joining the Islamic State continues to expand. The article looks at several countries, among which Libya. Quoting Founder of Libya-Analysis Jason Pack, Seldin warns of the resurgence of the terrorist group in Libya.

Click here to read the article.

 

08
May
2019

NOC Chairman advocates for ceasefire to protect Libya oil

On 8 May, Mustafa Sanallah the Chairman of Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) published an op-ed with Bloomberg in which he advocates for a ceasefire between the factions of General Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) and forces aligned with the UN-backed Governmen of National Accord (GNA) fighting in Southern Tripoli. Sanalla argues that a cease-fire is the only solution to protect Libya’s oil production which is a vital asset for the country and has already been impacted in various ways since the eruption of violence in early April. For Sanalla, a dual-key system for the oil sector must be maintained in Libya for the country to reach stability, meaning a system in which both GNA and LNA factions participate in the control of the sector, which is admnistrated by a third, neutral organisation such as the NOC.

Only a ceasefire and a return to the dual-key system will return stability to Libya’s oil sector. Libya’s civil conflict has raged for too long, and it is tempting to seek to break the deadlock once and for all. However, a violent swing of the pendulum, one way or the other, threatens to take offline much of Libya’s oil production – and along with it, Libya’s prospects for a peaceful and prosperous future.

Click here to read the full statement.

06
May
2019

External actors at the heart of Libyan tensions

In an article published on 5 May by WRAL.COM, Tim Lister summarizes the ongoing tensions and developments which have taken place in Libya over the course of the past month. Lister points out that, as exposed in Libya-Analysis Jason Pack and Lachlan Wilson’s article for the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, the current chaos in Libya provides opportunities for a significant resurgence of the Islamic State (ISIS) in Libya. Since the beginning of tensions around Tripoli, ISIS claimed two attacks in Southern Libya.

Click here to read the article.

24
Apr
2019

Highest levels of oil production and exports since 2013

While the country is at the precipice of a full civil war, the UN political process in tatters, and the stability and unity of its government at grave threat, oil production and exports are at their highest levels since 2013, topping 1.2 million bpd and expected to increase as long as conflict does not spread to oil fields and ports. The price of Libyan currency returned back to near normal pre-war levels after a quick dip in the first few days of the conflict, indicating strengthened confidence in local stability and limited demand for USD. However, such indicators remain highly volatile and a rapid decline in both is possible if dynamics change suddenly in favour of one or the other. The Islamic State (IS) has already exploited this opportunity by publishing video on its affiliated social media channels of its attacks on Libyan National Army (LNA) posts in south Libya, particularly in Ghudduwa and Sebha. If the LNA manages to stay in the western region and does not withdraw or the conflict becomes too protracted, pressure will increase in the eastern and central regions to blockade oil ports or attempt to divert oil sales to the eastern region.

23
Apr
2019

Did the United States endorse General Haftar?

On 19 April, France 24 reported that the President of the United States, Donald Trump, discussed the situation in Libya with General Haftar on 15 April by phone. According to a White House statement, the US president “recognized Field Marshal Haftar’s significant role in fighting terrorism and securing Libya’s oil resources, and the two discussed a shared vision for Libya’s transition to a stable, democratic political system”.

For Karim Mezran, interviewed by Ashish Kumar Sen in an article for The Atlantic Council published on 22 April, the apparent US support to Haftar’s offensive on Tripoli is paradoxical as it contrasts with earlier declarations by the US opposing the military solution in Libya. Mezran analyses Trump’s declaration to Haftar as an impulsive action which does not necessarily suggest a shift in the US position.

However, for other analysts such as Jalel Harchaoui or Frederic Wehrey, such a conversation between Haftar and Trump could signify an endorsement by the US of the military strongman and his strategy for Libya. Furthermore, for Harchaoui, it creates “an environment where a military intervention by foreign states, like Egypt, is likelier”.

Fighting persist in Tripoli, causing significant casualties amid the civilian population. However, both Russia and the US announced on 18 April that they could not support a UN Security Council resolution calling for a ceasefire in Libya at this time.

Click here and here to read the articles.

19
Apr
2019

Europe’s coalition on Libya

In his latest article with The European Council for Foreign Relations (ECFR), Tarek Megerisi shares his analysis of the situation in Libya three weeks after the launch by General Haftar of his offensive on Tripoli and advocates for European member states to take a lead to find a solution to the crisis. If internal tensions continue to prevent the Europeans to formulate coherent policy for Libya, Megerisi analyse they risk becoming mere observers as the conflict escalates.

Prospects may look grim for either side’s ability to achieve a resounding victory, but that has not dampened anyone’s enthusiasm for a fight. Both sides still have forces in reserve, both feel existentially driven to continue the struggle, and both have friends abroad that are willing to help them continue. […] Unfortunately, the longer this civil war continues, the more it will destabilise the region. The morass of militias from Sudan and Chad that exploit Libya’s lawlessness to enrich themselves pose an increasing threat to the stability of their home countries. Meanwhile, the chaos of civil war allows extremist groups like the Islamic State group (ISIS) to return to the offensive. Finally, Europe’s own migration demons risk returning as space opens up for new smuggling gangs, and as the financial strain of prolonged warfare makes restarting Libya’s human conveyor belt an increasingly enticing enterprise.

Click here to read the full article.

19
Apr
2019

Who sells weapons to Libya?

In an article published with Open Democracy on 18 April Paul Rogers denounces the alleged profit made by Western arm dealers out of the conflict in Libya. Rogers affirms that Western arm dealers have repeated in Libya their strategies of equipping with weapons opposing sides of a conflict and profiting off the fighting.

Click here to read the article.

12
Apr
2019

ICG provides recommendations to avert a full-blown war in Libya

On 10 April, International Crisis Group (ICG) published an analysis of the turmoil in Western Libya which resulted from the launch of an offensive of the Libyan National Army (LNA) by General Haftar. For ICG, the outcomes of the fight in Tripoli largely depends on the response of outside actors and the need for more explicit support to the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA). Drawing on this statement, ICG provides several recommendations to the international community in order to avoid the escalation of tensions. The recommendations insist on the fact that new negotiations would need three components reflecting what ICG identifies as Libya’s three-tiered nature: political, financial and military tracks.

Click here to read the article in full.

11
Apr
2019

Instability in Libya to set the ground for IS breakthrough

In his latest publication with Voice of America published on 10 April, Rikar Hussein analyses how the renewed tensions in Libya could set the ground for a resurgence of the Islamic State (IS) in Libya. Contributing to the article, Founder of Libya-Analysis Jason Pack explains that overt the course of the past two years, the terrorist organization has had time to reorganize itself. For him,

IS and jihadism in Libya are now on the verge of making a huge breakthrough, just like they did in 2012-2015 after killing (U.S.) Ambassador J. Christopher Stevens, and then jihadism flourished in many outlets in Libya.

The group is most likely to exploit Libya’s political vacuum and push further its war of attrition to prevent any future progress in Libyan state-building, Pack notes. As a matter of fact, just a few days after the re ignition of tensions in the Tripoli area between forces affiliated with Eastern Libyan General Haftar and forces, IS claimed an attack in Southern Libya.

Click here to read the article.

09
Apr
2019

ISIS attack in Southern Libya

Reuters reported on 9 April that fighters of the Islamic State (ISIS) conducted an attack in Southern Libya. The attack targeted the town of Fuqaha in Jufrah and reportedly resulted in the killing of 3 people and one kidnapping. Analysts alert that the present state of tensions and violence in Libya following the Libyan National Army (LNA) offensive on Tripoli could make the ground for a resurgence of ISIS in Libya.

Click here to read the article.

08
Apr
2019

Can the US come to Libya’s rescue ?

In an op-ed published with the New-York Times on 5 April, Frederic Wehrey and Jeffrey Feltman call for the Trump administration to intervene in Libya to prevent further escalation of the ongoing tensions. Drawing on the offensive launched by General Haftar and his affiliated forces on Tripoli, Wehrey and Feltman demand that the United States take a stand against General Haftar and his political  and military ambitions, arguing that the strongman does not serve American interest in the area and that he poses a threat to national and regional stability. For the two authors, the United States stand as a key international actor who could broker a deal between Libyan factions while other international actors have failed to do so. They note:

In our conversations over the years, it is clear that the United States still retains credibility in Libya as a relatively honest broker, especially when compared with the Europeans and Arabs pursuing competing and narrow interests.

Click here to read the article.

25
Mar
2019

Is Libya at risk of military escalation?

On 21 march, in an article published with Real Clear World, Nathan Vest warns about potential conflict between General Haftar’s forces and powerful Western militias, such as Misrata militias, highlighting that such a confrontation could have dire security and migration ramifications for Libya’s neighboring countries and Europe. Vest calls for an intervention of the United States as a neutral mediator to avoid violent escalation between Libyan factions.

Click here to read the full article.

22
Mar
2019

U.S Secretary of State reasserts US commitment to fight against ISIS

On 21 March, the U.S Department of State released an interview of Secretary of State Michael R. Pompeo with Chris Mitchell and David Brody of Christian Broadcasting Network. Interviewed after a trip to Israel where Pompeo met in Jerusalem with the Israeli Prime Minister and ambassador to the United States to Israel, the Secretary of State reasserted the commitment of the United States to continue to the fight against Islamic State (ISIS) in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. On that subject, Pompeo referred to the and exactions committed in Libya by the organisation.

Click here to read the interview.

22
Mar
2019

The Islamic State’s Revitalization in Libya and its Post-2016 War of Attrition

On 21 March, The Combating Terrorism Center (CTC) released its March issue of Sentinel (Volume 12, issue 3), to which Libya-Analysis Jason Pack and Lachlan Wilson contributed with an article entitled ‘The Islamic State’s Revitalization in Libya and its Post-2016 War of Attrition’. Jason Pack is President of Libya Analysis LLC and Dr. Lachlan Wilson is Managing Director of Eye on ISIS in Libya and the Program Manager at Libya-Analysis LLC. Pack and Wislon’s report decrypts the strategies adopted by the Islamic State (ISIS) in Libya since its territorial loss of Sirte in 2016. They argue that ISIS has engaged in a war of attrition seeking to derail Libyan state formation. Their report is articulated in four parts. First, they present an overview of the emergence of ISIS in Libya in 2014 and its evolution throughout the Libyan crisis. In a second part, they demonstrate how the Islamic State has appeared to have shifted strategy. Pack and Wilson identify that ISIS’s new approach relies on simultaneous military campaigns. On the one hand, the organization has been conducting high profile attacks on symbolic state institutions, and in parallel it has also engaged in a campaign in the desert throughout larger areas of the country. Then, the report focuses on the resources developed by the Islamic State to pursue its goals in terms of money, manpower and structures. Moving on, Pack and Wilson question the future of the Islamic State in Libya, alerting that the Islamic State in Libya may actually pose a greater threat to the state-building processes in 2019 than it did in 2016 given the present circumstances. They note:

The international community would be remiss to continue pushing political reconciliation while not providing sufficient attention to the intertwined ‘elephants in the room’ of Libya’s illicit economy and the threat from a resurgent Islamic State satellite. […] Looking further ahead over the next year—and assuming that sufficiently bold and coordinated actions from Libyan authorities and their international partners fail to materialize—the status quo in Libya will most probably be maintained; […] In this and other similar scenarios, the Islamic State in Libya is poised to exploit latent social fissures to help facilitate a descent into a large-scale conflict. In doing so, the group will be fulfilling its proximal ambition: maintaining the vicious circle of instability in Libya, which provides it with an ideal breeding ground.

The underlying information for this article is derived from the data produced and catalogued by Eye on ISIS in Libya (EOIL), a data repository of Islamic State actions, attacks, and social media statements run by the authors and available publicly at www.EyeOnISIS.com

Click here to read the article.

19
Mar
2019

8 years ago, President Obama approved airstrikes against Libya

In an article published with Politico on 19 March, Andrew Glass revisits US President Obama’s decision to approve airstrikes against Libya on 19 March 2011. Glass presents the narrative supporting President Obama’s decision, a narrative based on the urgency to intervene to protect Libyan pro-democracy protesters against the violence of Libyan leader Gaddafi. Citing Alan J. Kuperman, an associate professor at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas, Glass moves on to criticizing the consequences of the international intervention in Libya, noting:

In retrospect, Obama’s intervention in Libya was an abject failure, judged even by its own standards. Libya has not only failed to evolve into a democracy; it has devolved into a failed state. Violent deaths and other human rights abuses have increased severalfold.

Click here to read the article.

18
Mar
2019

Tensions in Southern Libya risk further marginalisation of ethnic groups

In an article for the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) published on 15 March, Umberto Profazio argues that tensions between Libyan rival administrations risk reigniting ethnic tensions and jeopardise fragile agreements. The author refers to the campaign launched by Eastern-Libyan General Haftar in Southern Libya in early 2019, noting that both General Haftar and rival administration the Government of National Accord (GNA) are attempting to court ethnic groups for political or territorial advantages. Profazio analyses that the result of such upheavals could be the further marginalisation of Southern communities. In conclusion of his article, he highlights the increasing isolation of Fayez Al-Sarraj, head of the GNA, and warns about potential shifts in international alliances:

In comparison to France’s assertive support for Haftar, the US stance could be interpreted as extremely cautious, but it does seem to be a reflection of changes on the ground. Haftar’s advances have certainly raised doubts in Washington, which is reconsidering its relationship with Sarraj. He is a weakened partner who is not only losing the confidence of his major foreign allies, but also the support of militias in the capital and finds himself increasingly undermined by his own colleagues in Tripoli.

Click here to read the analysis.

13
Mar
2019

Gang connected to ISIS arrested in Tripoli

On 7 March, a gang of five men suspected of having connections to Islamic State (ISIS) were arrested as they reportedly attempted in to ‘infiltrate’ Tripoli. Reports suggest three of those arrested were dressed as women. Throughout the last three weeks, reputable sources have warned of an impending ISIS attack in Tripoli. No attack has materialised so far, with suggestions that local security forces thwarted an attempt recently. However, the potential for an attack remains moderately high. The Government of National Accord (GNA) does not control a single consolidated security force in western Libya. The militias aligned to the GNA do not directly follow its directions and in many cases actively work to undermine security governance. This has created a fractured security landscape, allowing ISIS to operate in the gaps and launch successful attacks on key institutions. Based on ISIS’s previous attacks in Tripoli, any potential attack is likely to target the headquarters of key state institutions. The Central Bank of Libya, High Council of State and the United Nations headquarters could be the focus of ISIS attacks in Tripoli in the near future given the ease of attack and attractiveness as high impact symbolic targets.

11
Feb
2019

The Islamic Group’s progressive development in the Sahel

On 10 February, Baria Alamuddin discussed in an article published with Arab News the threat posed by the terrorist organisation Daesh (IS) in Africa. Alamuddin notes that while some voices are proclaiming the end of Daesh following the defeats of the terrorist organisation in Iraq and Syria, segments of the organisation are progressively conquering terrorities across Africa. For Alamuddin :

Across a huge swath of the Sahel states — from Mali and Libya through Nigeria and Chad to Egypt, Somalia and Kenya — vast desert and rural regions are either in extremist hands or vulnerable to depredations by these groups.

For the journalist, Daesh groups in Africa are developing a strategy enriched by the Iraqi and Syrian experciences which is based on progressive state building, the integration of local people and avoiding international attention. Regarding Libya, Alamuddin notes that failure to address the crisis has allowed the terrorist group to disperse and take root across the country.

Click here to read the article.

29
Jan
2019

Has the UN failed Libya?

In an article published with Arab News on 26 January, Hafed Al-Ghwell discusses political stagnation in Libya and the role of the UN Special Mission to Libya (UNSMIL). Al-Ghwell argues that despite being present in the country since 2011, the UN and its special mission have failed to bring Libya closer to complete its transition. The current Special Envoy to Libya Ghassan Salame, who was appointed in 2017 amid hopes that he would be able to push forward solutions to the crisis, appears to repeat the usual UN modus operandi which the author characterizes as « piecemeal efforts ». For Al-Ghwell, the solutions pushed forward by the UN, and the international community, do not allow for significant progress. According to the author, one of the main issue is that the initiatives continue to target the same political elite who is responsible for the political deadlock.

Click here to read the article.

10
Jan
2019

Demining Benghazi

On 9 January, a film documentary was released on DW on the men working in Benghazi to clean the city from the hundreds of mines planted by ISIS during its occupation of the city. Libyan journalist and cameraman Osama Al-Fitori accompanied the mine clearers going about their dangerous work for two years, documenting how the men searched for, found and neutralized explosives without metal detectors and wearing no protective clothing. The documentary insightfully portrays the challenges by ordinary citizens in Benghazi as they try to reclaim the city territory.

Click here to watch the documentary.

27
Dec
2018

ISIS attack targets Tripoli-based Foreign Ministry

On 25 December, four ISIS fighters undertook a suicide attack on Libya’s foreign ministry in Tripoli, killing three people and wounding at least 21 more. The assault began when a white Hyundai sedan exploded outside the ministry’s back gate, killing the driver. Two attackers died when they detonated their suicide vests on the building’s second floor while another was shot dead by security guards. ISIS’s Amaq website claimed responsibility for the attack on 26 December.

The three victims have been identified as: Abdulrahman Mazoughi, the spokesperson for the Tripoli Revolutionaries Brigade; Ibrahim Sheiby, director of the ministry’s Islamic Affairs Department; and Hend Arnaouti, a ministry employee.

Despite national and international efforts, tensions resulting from the lingering presence of the terrorist organisation persist in Libya. For analysts, the internal chaos in Libya creates the environment for terrorist organisations to strive.

Click here to read the report.

19
Dec
2018

‘Lost in Trans-nation : Tubu and Other Armed Groups and Smugglers along Libya’s Southern Border’

On 19 December, Jérôme Tubiana and Claudio Gramizzi published for Small Arms Survey’s Security Assessment in North Africa (SANA) in co-production with Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) and Conflict Armament Research a very interesting report on Southern Libya. Entitled ‘Lost in Trans-nation : Tubu and Other Armed Groups and Smugglers along Libya’s Southern Border’, the report builds on ‘Tubu Trouble: State and Statelessness in the Chad–Sudan–Libya Triangle’, written by the same au­thors and published by the Small Arms Survey and Conflict Armament Research in June 2017 (Tubiana and Gramizzi, 2017). The report explores the issue of lawlessness in Southern Libya and provides an analysis of the different groups evolving in this area and their strategies. It is based on field research carried out in Niger in February–March 2017 and April 2018, as well as interviews conducted in Chad in May–June 2017 and January 2018, and in Europe in 2017–18.

The relevance of the report is high given the increasing tensions and violence in Southern Libya and the difficulty to understand the motives of the different actors and the issues at stake in the area. For the authors, Southern Libya is characterized by its ‘lawlessness’ and the presence of ‘autonomous, yet fragmented ethnic militias in control of southern Libya’s border’. The strategic nature of the area then ‘prompts northern Libyan forces as well as the governments of neighboring and European states to pursue alliances with them’, analyse Tubiana and Gramizzi. Among their main findings, the authors note that :

By pressuring Niger to criminalize migrant smuggling and block migrants in or on their way to southern Libya, European states have contributed to a series of destabilizing dynamics. Specifically, their policies have:

  • aggravated risks for migrants, as trafficking is now concentrated among fewer, more abusive actors, especially in Libya, where migrants from West Africa and elsewhere are systematically kidnapped for ransom, or forced into debt bond­age, labour, or prostitution;
  • caused migrant smugglers to ply more treacherous routes or engage in more dangerous activities, such as drug trafficking, jihadism, and insurgency;
  • fuelled corruption among Nigerien forces and exacerbated tensions between Niger’s government and its northern communities, which are largely dependent on migrant smuggling for their livelihoods; and empowered Libyan and Sudanese militias.

The authors develop their argument in four sections. First, the authors build the profile of the Tubu militias, situating the Tubu within the broader international political context as well as in Libya’s complex politics and history. Then, the authors focus on Libya’s southern neighbors and the strategies they have developed in the area. Drawing on, they provide an analysis of the strategic area of the Agadez-Fezzan corridor, the route between the Sahel and Libya and a place of important illegal trade and migration. Lastly, the fourth section presents data and analysis of regional weapons flows to support  some of the findings discussed in the previous sections.

Click here to read the report.

26
Nov
2018

UNSMIL condemns ISIS attack in Southern Libya

On 25 November, the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) issued a statement condemning the terrorist attack on a police station in Tazirbu, Southern Libya, on 24 November. ISIS latter claimed responsability for the attack which left at least 8 civilians killed and 9 wounded. Reports also suggest that approximately 12 people were kidnapped by the terrorist group. In its statement, UNSMIL called for the immediate release of the civilians abducted and for all Libyan parties to work together against the terrorist threat in Libya.

Click here to read the statement.

01
Oct
2018

ISIS’s progressive resurgence in Libya

On Sept 29, Public Broadcasting Service (PBS) issued for News Hour a video report on Libya. In the report, journalist Christopher Livesay investigates the resurgence of the Islamic State (ISIS) in Libya. He interviews members of Libya’s counter-terrorism forces in Sirte, as well as analyst Frederic Wehrey and UN Special Envoy to Libya Ghassan Salame. The conclusions of the report are that ISIS continues to exist in Libya despite the 2016 intervention by Libyan and allied forces. The terrorist group has regrouped in desert areas and has perpetrated several violent attacks this year. However, according to experts, it still lacks the ability to control majorities.

Click here to watch the documentary.