Oil revenue access drives conflict
In an article published with Petroleum Economist on 13 June, Libya-Analysis Founder Jason Pack and Managing Director Rhiannon Smith decrypt the politicisation of the oil sector in Libya. For Pack and Smith, there is an increasing risk that General Haftar and his affiliated force, the Libyan National Army (LNA), seize Libya’s oil revenues.
Noting that Haftar and his forces already controls key pipelines, fields, ports and terminals in Libya but cannot export the oil, Pack and Smith foresee that
If the fighting drags on in Tripoli, it becomes increasingly likely that the LNA will attempt to export oil illicitly through the parallel eastern NOC, allowing it to directly pocket the proceeds and feed its war machine. Attempts are already underway, with the UAE-based Sulaco Group reportedly signing a contract with the eastern NOC to lift 2mn bl from Hariga port. While such attempts have been made in the past, they have usually been unsuccessful due to US and UN intervention. In the current climate, it is less certain that international actors will be as robust in their condemnations and counter-efforts as they had been previously.
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