Viewing posts from: Southern Libya

21
Feb
2019

‘Democracy hasn’t worked out in Libya’

In his latest article for Reuters published on 21 February, Ulf Laessing shares local perceptions from Benghazi, illustrating the political narratives that have emerged in Libya along the divisions between West and East. Interviewing residents from the city, Laessing reports the growing disbelief in the solutions put forward by the international community and the UN, such as the forthcoming National Conference, and the increasing belief that Libya needs a strong political figure, such as General Haftar.

Click here to read the article.

19
Feb
2019

LNA advances in Southern Libya could increase GNA internal divisions

On 14 February, the Government of National Accord’s (GNA) Minister of Interior Fathi Bashagha gave an interview with al-Hurra television where he stated that the head of the Libyan National Army (LNA), Khalifa Haftar, “played a role” in the military activities in Libya’s south and that it was “acceptable from the national point of view,” in the context of removing organised crime emerging from the region. However, Bashagha qualified his statement by saying that he hoped Haftar would play his role in national efforts, but not use the operation for political gain or to increase division.

Bashagha’s statements recognizing Haftar has a role to play are indicative of increasing rapprochement between LNA and key western figures, particularly Misrata. While such statements should not be taken to indicate the beginning of a hard and fast LNA-Misrata alliance, they nevertheless represent a willingness to tolerate one another which is at odds with Serraj’s stance towards the LNA since the start of the southern operations. This internal division within the GNA, combined with other factors, continues to drive political fragility within Libya and could lead to sudden escalations of instability.

15
Feb
2019

ICG analyst Gazzini on French-Italian rivalry for Aska News

On 13 February 2019 Aska News published a report on the situation in Southern Libya, marked by the advances of forces loyal to Eastern-Libya based General Haftar. The article quoted analyst Claudia Gazzini from International Crisis Group, who stated that General Haftar’s advances in Southern Libya could become a « game changer » in the Libyan political process. For Gazzini, the latest developments have seen France more involved on the ground, through its strikes targeting rebel groups in Chad whereas Italy does not seem to have formulated a political strategy regarding Libya.

Click here to read the report.

13
Feb
2019

NOC to lift force majeure at El Sharara oil field in exchange for workers’ security

On 11 February, Libyan National Army (LNA) Chief of Staff Abdurrazak al-Nathouri announced that dialogue was under way between the LNA and the 30th Brigade regarding the latter’s requirements to provide effective security in order to lift force majeure on the El Sharara oil field. The 30th Brigade is the Tuareg Petroleum Facilities Guard unit which currently guards Sharara and is aligned with Ali Kanna. Nathouri also said that the LNA had no intention of moving on al-Feel as the field is operating without security issues at present.

The security situation in the South is likely to remain extremely volatile in the short term. The positive implications of the LNA apparently taking control of Sharara could be a more secure and stable base for the restart of production from Sharara field, particularly given the LNA has stated it intends to allow the NOC to export the crude. However, this will depend on whether the NOC agrees to restart the field. Sanallah has already reiterated his stance this week that production will not restart until staff safety can be guaranteed. The negative implications are that with LNA units and nominally LNA-aligned local forces at Sharara, the oilfield will become a target for local forces who oppose the LNA’s presence in the region, destabilising the oilfield further and potentially putting infrastructure at risk.

12
Feb
2019

Tebu and Tuareg tribes unite under GNA umbrella to curb LNA advances in Southern Libya

In his latest article published with Middle East Eye on 10 February, Tom Wescott discusses shifts of alliances and strategies in Southern Libya to counter the advances of the Libyan National Army (LNA) in region. Wescott reports that indigenous Tebu and Tuareg tribes from Southern Libya are forging an alliance under the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) to curb advances of forces loyal to eastern-Libya based General Haftar in the South. The threat posed by the advances of the LNA is pushing Tebu and Tuareg independent militias to move belong their long-standing divisions as they are military weak on their own  but could defend their areas united. This shift in alliance is supervised by Ali Kanna, the new military commander for the south appointed by the GNA, who is a Tuareg. Wescott’s article provides an excellent and well-balanced overview of the historic context of Southern Libya and the alliances between local actors.

Click here to read the article.

11
Feb
2019

LNA operation in Southern Libya puts oil infrastructure at risk

On 7 February, François d’Alançon published with French newspaper La Croix an analysis of the operation launched by General Khalifa Haftar in Southern Libya and its potential impacts on the political and security situation in Libya. For d’Alançon, movements of the Libyan National Army (LNA) affiliated with General Haftar in Southern Libya are rekindling political and ethnic tensions in the country. D’Alançon highlights that the success of the operation would increase Haftar’s influence in Libya and open the door for a push of the LNA towards Western Libya and Tripoli and could put oil infrastructures at risk. The journalist notes that General Haftar’s operation has received support from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt, Saudi Arabia and France, as well from Russia and Italy. Jalel Harchaoui, quoted in the article, explains that France has pushed General Haftar to launch the operation due to its involvement in Chad against rebel groups.

Click here to read the report.

07
Feb
2019

LNA takes control of El Sharara Oilfield

On 7 February, media sources reported that the Libyan National Army (LNA) has taken control of El Sharara oilfield located in Southern Libya on 6 February. The oilfield has been closed since 8 December by groups of tribesmen, armed protesters and state guards demanding salary payments and development funds. Rreports suggest that they handed out the control of the site to the LNA without violence. Thus far, the National Oil Company and the Governement of National Accord (GNA) have not commented on the situation. Such a maneuver by the LNA is likely to raise concerns in Western Libya as to whether General Haftar is attempting to defy the authority of the GNA.

Click here to read the report.

Update 08/02: Following the initial reports that the LNA had seized El Sharara Oilfield, further reports on 7 February indicated that General Haftar’s armed forces took control of a substation of El Sharara Oilfield, but not the main field. Moreover, complementary reports suggest that LNA forces clashed with forces under the control of the newly-appointed commander of Sabha military zone Ali Kanna affiliated with the GNA.

06
Feb
2019

LNA Campaign In South Libya Wins Support Despite Reports Of Atrocities Against The Tebu

The Libyan National Army’s (LNA) advance into south Libya, launched two weeks ago, has won support among a large swath of the population in the region. In Sebha, the LNA struck social agreements and tribal guarantees with various powerbrokers from the mix of Arab, Tuareg and Tebu tribes in the city. This ensured a peaceful handover of key locations and arms depots, previously controlled by Awlad Suliman and Tebu tribal fighters, to new commanders appointed by the LNA, under the Sebha Operations Room. However, there have been a flurry of media reports accusing the LNA of committing war crimes and violations against Tebu communities in the South. Some Tebu members of the House of Representatives (HoR) and the parallel eastern government resigned from their positions last week in response to the LNA campaign

The longer-term implications of the LNA’s operation remain unpredictable at present. On the positive side, the LNA’s operation has had some success in winning over a large segment of the Libyan population, including some formerly opposed to Haftar, in a manner akin to what happened after the LNA’s takeover of the Oil Crescent and resumption of exports from that region in September 2016. This is likely to be a major boost for GNA and LNA reconciliation, especially in terms of military and security unification. It could also improve security and stability in the South, helping to normalise oil production from this region. On the negative side, the LNA’s operation runs a serious risk of triggering an ethnic war between the South’s tribal components, primarily between the Arabs and the Tebu.

17
Jan
2019

LNA Launches Military Operation In The South

On 15 January, a Libyan National Army (LNA) spokesman confirmed that an LNA operation to liberate southern Libya from “terrorist” groups is underway. He added that the operation was also intended to “ensure the public’s continued ability to maintain and control Libya’s oil and gas sector”. The spokesman advised civilians to avoid known militant bases, such as Sebha, and urged local hospitals to declare states of emergencies. LNA forces are reportedly grouping at Tamanhint Airbase in Sebha in advance of operations in the border regions with Chad, Niger and Sudan.

The LNA mobilisation to the southern region is being implemented on a much greater scale than previous times where the LNA has said it will undertake operations to remove militant and extremist groups from the region. A large armed campaign to remove these groups appears imminent. Haftar has previously met with regional leaders and discussed border security, as well as the security vacuum in the southern regions. The reported coordination with Chadian forces indicates that the LNA is making its greatest effort yet in the south in order to ensure Haftar’s image as the main military and security guarantor for Libya and its neighbours. Securing Sharara oil field is also likely to be a key strategic aim of this operation.

 

19
Dec
2018

‘Lost in Trans-nation : Tubu and Other Armed Groups and Smugglers along Libya’s Southern Border’

On 19 December, Jérôme Tubiana and Claudio Gramizzi published for Small Arms Survey’s Security Assessment in North Africa (SANA) in co-production with Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) and Conflict Armament Research a very interesting report on Southern Libya. Entitled ‘Lost in Trans-nation : Tubu and Other Armed Groups and Smugglers along Libya’s Southern Border’, the report builds on ‘Tubu Trouble: State and Statelessness in the Chad–Sudan–Libya Triangle’, written by the same au­thors and published by the Small Arms Survey and Conflict Armament Research in June 2017 (Tubiana and Gramizzi, 2017). The report explores the issue of lawlessness in Southern Libya and provides an analysis of the different groups evolving in this area and their strategies. It is based on field research carried out in Niger in February–March 2017 and April 2018, as well as interviews conducted in Chad in May–June 2017 and January 2018, and in Europe in 2017–18.

The relevance of the report is high given the increasing tensions and violence in Southern Libya and the difficulty to understand the motives of the different actors and the issues at stake in the area. For the authors, Southern Libya is characterized by its ‘lawlessness’ and the presence of ‘autonomous, yet fragmented ethnic militias in control of southern Libya’s border’. The strategic nature of the area then ‘prompts northern Libyan forces as well as the governments of neighboring and European states to pursue alliances with them’, analyse Tubiana and Gramizzi. Among their main findings, the authors note that :

By pressuring Niger to criminalize migrant smuggling and block migrants in or on their way to southern Libya, European states have contributed to a series of destabilizing dynamics. Specifically, their policies have:

  • aggravated risks for migrants, as trafficking is now concentrated among fewer, more abusive actors, especially in Libya, where migrants from West Africa and elsewhere are systematically kidnapped for ransom, or forced into debt bond­age, labour, or prostitution;
  • caused migrant smugglers to ply more treacherous routes or engage in more dangerous activities, such as drug trafficking, jihadism, and insurgency;
  • fuelled corruption among Nigerien forces and exacerbated tensions between Niger’s government and its northern communities, which are largely dependent on migrant smuggling for their livelihoods; and empowered Libyan and Sudanese militias.

The authors develop their argument in four sections. First, the authors build the profile of the Tubu militias, situating the Tubu within the broader international political context as well as in Libya’s complex politics and history. Then, the authors focus on Libya’s southern neighbors and the strategies they have developed in the area. Drawing on, they provide an analysis of the strategic area of the Agadez-Fezzan corridor, the route between the Sahel and Libya and a place of important illegal trade and migration. Lastly, the fourth section presents data and analysis of regional weapons flows to support  some of the findings discussed in the previous sections.

Click here to read the report.