Europe’s coalition on Libya
In his latest article with The European Council for Foreign Relations (ECFR), Tarek Megerisi shares his analysis of the situation in Libya three weeks after the launch by General Haftar of his offensive on Tripoli and advocates for European member states to take a lead to find a solution to the crisis. If internal tensions continue to prevent the Europeans to formulate coherent policy for Libya, Megerisi analyse they risk becoming mere observers as the conflict escalates.
Prospects may look grim for either side’s ability to achieve a resounding victory, but that has not dampened anyone’s enthusiasm for a fight. Both sides still have forces in reserve, both feel existentially driven to continue the struggle, and both have friends abroad that are willing to help them continue. […] Unfortunately, the longer this civil war continues, the more it will destabilise the region. The morass of militias from Sudan and Chad that exploit Libya’s lawlessness to enrich themselves pose an increasing threat to the stability of their home countries. Meanwhile, the chaos of civil war allows extremist groups like the Islamic State group (ISIS) to return to the offensive. Finally, Europe’s own migration demons risk returning as space opens up for new smuggling gangs, and as the financial strain of prolonged warfare makes restarting Libya’s human conveyor belt an increasingly enticing enterprise.
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