13
May
2013

The 2011 Libyan Uprisings and the Struggle for the Post-Qadhafi Future

My Book will be released on June 13, 2013.  Yet you can order your copy from Palgrave by clicking here or from Amazon by clicking here .

Here is some advanced praise for the volume by the established authorities in the field:

“In the wake of Libya’s civil war, a number of volumes have appeared that chronicle the country’s civil war and its aftermath.  Few, however, will be able to match the comprehensiveness and insights of The 2011 Libyan Uprisings and the Struggle for the Post-Qadhafi Future, which provides an admirable overview and synthesis of the different aspects of the country’s most recent upheaval by several noted Libya-watchers.”

—Dirk Vandewalle, Dartmouth College

“Deeply rooted in historical research, Jason Pack’s The 2011 Libyan Uprisings and the Struggle for the Post-Qadhafi Future is a work of original scholarship and analysis that sheds new light on the causes and origins of the Libyan uprisings, the continuous struggle throughout Libyan history between the center and the periphery, and the role of different domestic and international actors in the success of the revolt. The difficulties and hurdles of the transition from Jamahiriya to Jumhuriya are clearly exposed and discussed.”

—Karim Mezran, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East

“Best Libya book since the uprisings against the Qadhafi regime.  Sweeping introduction will introduce you to individual issues addressed by top experts.  Despite ongoing change, this book will stand the test of time.”

—David Mack, Middle East Institute Scholar and former US Ambassador

13
May
2013

Ministries Back to Work after Sieges End

Has the crisis been partially defused? Can Zidan stay and the GNC get back to work? It remains unclear. What is clear is that enormous delays and inefficiency have been added as a result of the current Political Isolation Law and the intimidation and resort to force surrounding it. Yet for the moment it appears the Libyan people have spoken: They prefer the idea that anyone connected to the former regime cannot hold a prominent position in public life, yet they do not want the gears of government to grind to a halt.  Here is what the Libya Herald has to say in Ministries Back to Work after Sieges End.

Staff at the Foreign and Justice Ministries went back to work today after almost a fortnight of being kept out of the buildings by armed militiamen. The latter had originally mounted the blockades in support of the Political Isolation Law.

A week ago, after the Political Isolation Law was passed, the gunmen had refused to end up their sieges insisting they would remain until the government of Ali Zeidan was removed and that they saw that those had been working there who they said had been Qaddafi-era officials were removed.

The continued blocade had resulted in Marghani saying that he would move the Justice Ministry elsewhere, even out of Tripoli.

Following large demonstrations in Friday against the sieges, the militiamen withdrew and on Saturday, the judicial police returned to guard the Ministry of Justice while army units and the police moved in to guard the Foreign Ministry.

08
May
2013

Britain Should Take the Lead in Libya

In response to the current crisis in Tripoli, I am unsurprisingly calling for more engagement and support for the Zidan government from the West.  Otherwise it will be too late.  In Britain Should Take the Lead in Libya I am putting forth the case for strong engagement from Cameron to try to build an international coalition to help in capacity building in Libya.

For the international community the attack against the French Embassy and the radicalization of the conflict between the militias and government institutions must serve as a wake-up call, and remind them that the gains of the NATO-led intervention are on the verge of being undone.

It is against this inauspicious backdrop of a full-fledged ‘struggle for post-Qaddafi Libya’– and not simply that of Mali backlash– that last month’s bombing, this week’s militia occupations, and passing of the destructive political isolation law must be understood. The perpetrators of the attack fully understand Western reluctance to engage in nation-building post-Iraq and Afghanistan and undoubtedly intended the bombing as a message to the foreign diplomatic and business communities to stay away from Libya.

Britain remains one of (if not the) world’s expert in the field of capacity building and Cameron has the political links to Obama and the relevant Middle Eastern players (Turkey, UAE, and Qatar) that Hollande lacks. Present conditions, however, demonstrate that the time for hesitation is over and that Britain should occupy the key position in forging a new international coalition for engagement.

07
May
2013

Political Isolation Law Passed and Militias and Populists Still Boycott

Read it and weep — for the future of Libya.  This is a sorry sorry day as the thuwwar have impose their desired ‘de-Qadhafification’ process on the GNC and it might well end up including the removal of a number of senior members of the GNC’s government. It truly appears that the militias might well succeed in subverting the democratic process and changing the whole government through populist violence and intimidation.    It is thought that the ten year ban from public office called for in the Political Isolation Law passed on 5 May would apply to a number of members of the GNC, such as President Mohamed al-Magarief, at least several ministers, and possibly Prime Minister Ali Zidan.  Though a new government without those who held leadership positions in ministries, universities, state-owned companies, or embassies during the Qadhafi years could be perceived as more legitimate by the Libyan public, it is doubtful that other armed groups will refrain from violence, intimidation, and populist mobilization against future governments now that it has proven to be a winning tactic.

Here are some highlights of al-Arabiyya’s coverage:

Gunmen on Monday demanded the Libyan government’s resignation as they besieged ministries despite the adoption of a law to purge officials from the regime of dead dictator Muammar Qaddafi from their posts.

“We are determined to continue our movement until the departure of (Prime Minister) Ali Zeidan,” said Osama Kaabar, a leader of the militias who had promised to lift their siege if the law was passed.

03
May
2013

Blockades Polarizing Libya; Militiamen Now Hit Electricity Ministry

With the situation escalating, members of the government are continuing to appease the militias telling them that their demands to alter the rules of the political game by force are legitimate.  Libya Herald catches how the Electricity Minister has undermined Zidan’s principled actions in calling for his supporters to the streets and not caving in the blockades.  Read more here 

Militiamen supporting the Political Isolation Law that would see Qaddafi-regime officials banned from holding senior government and state institution jobs took their armed campaign to the Ministry of Electricity today.

Since Monday, they have been blockading the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, claiming that Qaddafi-regime officials were working there. They also blockaded the Interior Ministry the same day. On Monday, they attacked the Finance Ministry, smashing equipment in offices, and on Tuesday took action at the Ministry of Justice.

“We are not against demonstrations,” said the Electricity Minister, Ali Muhairiq, this evening, confirming today’s protests. “They have legitimate demands.” But he did not confirm reports that the militiamen had entered the building and ransacked offices.

02
May
2013

Libyan Stability at Risk

Karim Mezran and I again ascend the bully pulpit, advocating again for increased Western engagement in Libya in an unfortunately titled article, Libyan Stability at Risk, in Foreign Policy’s Middle East Channel. We all know that Libya has not been stable since 2010, but that the central government is truly on the verge of losing control of the transition process itself.  Hence, we conclude, “It is no exaggeration to say that the internal political forces inside the country are balanced on a razor’s edge. An unexpected gust of political violence could lead to anarchy; a helping hand providing a gentle push in the right direction could ease the transition toward democracy and stability.”

For the international community the attack against the French Embassy and the radicalization of the conflict between militias and government institutions must serve as a wake-up call, and remind them that the gains of the NATO-led intervention are at risk of being undone. The countries that helped overthrow Qaddafi should redouble their efforts to support the creation of professional armed forces and police, vocational training, and constitution writing. If greater support is withheld, the French Embassy attack may prove to be the start of a trend, in which case Libyan — and by extension North African — instability would become a permanent status quo. The crisis in Mali and the growing instability in Algeria — and most recently Tunisia — offer clear evidence in support of this conjecture.

It is against this inauspicious backdrop of a full-fledged “struggle for post-Qaddafi Libya” — and not simply that of Mali backlash — that last week’s bombing, this week’s militia occupations, and heated debates concerning the political isolation law must be understood.

Worse yet, the country’s fledgling national armed forces — historically weak under Qaddafi and being largely built from the ground up — have been subject to internal crises, only slowing their lackluster reconstruction. Most recently, officers from Eastern Libya demanded the removal of Chief of Staff Youssef Mangoush, citing his inability to restructure the armed forces and reinforce security. Moreover, the Southern Military Governor appointed to bring order to the country’s lawless south, recently denounced the lack of resources at his disposal, publicly admitting the impossibility of his task. The Libyan military is, to put it mildly, ill prepared for its mission to defend the state and maintain order.

02
May
2013

Demonstration in Support of Political Isolation Law

Libya Herald tries to capture the revolutionary and dysfunctional climate in Tripoli now in the lead up to the vote on the Political Isolation law with all of the populist pressure trying to influence what should be a time for a cool, rationale, and calculated decision.

Around a thousand people demonstrated at the General National Congress (GNC) building today, in support of the Political Isolation Law.

Today’s GNC session was suspended ahead of the planned demonstration and the demonstrators were free to enter through the gates into the grounds of the GNC conference hall.

Leader of the Ummah al Wasat Party and a central figure of the Political Isolation Law movement, Saami Al Saadi, told the gathered crowd that the revolution was not only against Qaddafi but the whole corrupt system. Those involved with the old regime could not be allowed to continue in the Free Libya, he said.

Another demonstration is planned for Sunday, the day the GNC is scheduled to vote on the legislation. Demonstrators will apparently demand that details of the ballot be made public and one speaker said: “The people of Libya should know who voted in favour of the law and who opposed it.”

29
Apr
2013

Libya Gunmen Surround Tripoli Foreign Ministry

Well in the latest very bad development the struggle between the militias and the central government has become overt with militiamen attempting to not only sway the votes on the Political Isolation law but to shut down the government if it doesn’t not cave in to their demands.  Why the national army or Libya Shield forces are not called in to deal with this situation is insane, in short it bodes very ill for the creation of any sort of functioning central government if the militias get their way, but the GNC has followed the NTC in pretty much always caving in….  Read more about it from the BBC here.

Men in pick-up trucks bristling with anti-aircraft guns have blocked off Libya’s foreign ministry, demanding a jobs ban on Gaddafi-era officials.

Prime Minister Ali Zeidan, at a news conference, urged Libyans to back their government in the face of “people who want to destabilise the country”.

He also complained of other attacks and “acts of sabotage”, carried out by separate groups, against the interior ministry and national TV headquarters. But Libya’s Lana news agency said the action at the interior ministry was not linked to the events outside the foreign ministry.

23
Apr
2013

French Embassy in Libya Attacked

The latest depressing news from the NYT.

The explosion of a car parked outside the French Embassy in Libya wounded two French guards on Tuesday in what appeared to be the first major terrorist attack on a diplomatic compound in the capital since the ouster of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi in 2011.

No one claimed responsibility Tuesday, following the pattern of earlier attacks. But Libyans immediately suspected militant Islamists angry over the French intervention in Mali, where French troops are supporting government efforts to oppose Islamic militants in the north of the country. The assault came a day after the French Parliament voted to extend the French military deployment there.

In January, Italy, the former colonial power in Libya, closed its consulate in Benghazi and withdrew its staff because of security concerns after an attempted ambush of the Italian consul. Last month, Libyan security officials said they had arrested two men in the kidnapping near Benghazi of five British humanitarian activists, at least two of them women who had been sexually assaulted.

The attack on the French Embassy, however, may raise new questions about the possibility that militants may now try to strike other targets in the capital as well. The country as a whole is viewed by outsiders as potentially perilous with many weapons in the hands of citizens and militias beyond government control. Most foreigners in Tripoli take elaborate security precautions.