For IS, Losing Sirte Won’t Mean Losing Libya: Analysts
Libya Analysis’ Jason Pack was quoted in an article in the Daily Mail.
The thrust of the article is that after the loss of Sirte ISIS survivors are likely to disperse throughout the country and continue to engage in their terrorism.
It would probably prompt the group to change tactics, said Ethan Chorin, an American former diplomat in Libya and head of Perim Associates, a consultancy. Libya will “very likely see a shift in IS strategy to a more diffuse and intensified campaign of terror and intimidation,” he told AFP. “IS and like-minded Islamist fighters have consistently shown an ability to ‘melt away’ at will,” Chorin said.
“It is likely that the victorious militias will defy GNA rulings and expose the fact that the GNA is not actually a unity of anything,” said Jason Pack, a Libya-focused researcher at Cambridge University who consults for Western governments.” As always in Libya, it is the men with guns who hold political power, not those with fancy suits and titles.”
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