How long can the truce hold in Tripoli?
Although the fragile ceasefire is just about holding in Tripoli at the time of writing, Serraj and Haftar did not meet in Berlin and did not agree to formal ceasefire terms. Instead, both have agreed to nominate 5 military officials each to a commission to discuss the ceasefire in Geneva next week. However, there is a significant disconnect between Berlin and events on the ground, and there seems to be little appetite among the Libyan belligerent for real negotiations. As a result, it seems unlikely that the truce will be converted into a formal ceasefire in the coming weeks and that fighting will start once more.
There are indications that both sides are using the ceasefire as an opportunity to regroup and bed down, with Turkey and the UAE actively resupplying their allies on the ground even while participating in the Berlin conference. Turkey has continued to send Syrian mercenaries as well as air defence systems to the GNA-aligned forces, while the UAE also appears to have been flying in shipments. Once one side unequivocally breaks the truce, the other will be ready to respond, meaning renewed conflict remains likely in the short term.