The Future of Libya: Is ‘Pakistanisation’ a Foregone Conclusion?
I have written an article with Haley Cook in the latest issue of the RUSI Newsbrief published by the Royal United Services Institute entitled, “The Future of Libya: Is ‘Pakistanisation’ a Foregone Conclusion?” This article looks at the possible paths for Libya after the third anniversary of the 2011 uprisings and the 20 February constitutional committee election. In the best case scenario, Libya would be stable and prosperous with a vibrant, diversified economy, strong human capital, and robust democratic institutions. In the worst case scenario, the Libyan state would collapse into complete chaos, with the government controlling barely only the capital and the rest of the country fragmenting into renewed civil conflict by warlords grabbing resources. In our estimation, given the current state of affairs, the future lies somewhere inbetween.
As we have written:
“There still remains a narrow window for Libya to navigate its present obstacles, but this opportunity is fast closing as the state’s finances rapidly deteriorate in the face of oil blockades, and as the political legitimacy of the country’s parliament is imperilled by popular protests and the fudged compromises that have allowed it to temporarily overstay its mandate – but which have also transformed it into an Islamist-backed body.”
“The most likely political future for Libya, however, is a hybrid scenario that falls short of Afghanistan-like anarchy, but allows for an overwhelming level of political patronage and corruption that would prevent Libya from truly reaching its economic and democratic potential. Such a scenario might be termed ‘Pakistanisation’, since the Libyan state would remain weak but intact as its various institutions were carved up and subjected to a loose power-sharing arrangement.”
You can read the full article here.