Tensions in Southern Libya risk further marginalisation of ethnic groups
In an article for the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) published on 15 March, Umberto Profazio argues that tensions between Libyan rival administrations risk reigniting ethnic tensions and jeopardise fragile agreements. The author refers to the campaign launched by Eastern-Libyan General Haftar in Southern Libya in early 2019, noting that both General Haftar and rival administration the Government of National Accord (GNA) are attempting to court ethnic groups for political or territorial advantages. Profazio analyses that the result of such upheavals could be the further marginalisation of Southern communities. In conclusion of his article, he highlights the increasing isolation of Fayez Al-Sarraj, head of the GNA, and warns about potential shifts in international alliances:
In comparison to France’s assertive support for Haftar, the US stance could be interpreted as extremely cautious, but it does seem to be a reflection of changes on the ground. Haftar’s advances have certainly raised doubts in Washington, which is reconsidering its relationship with Sarraj. He is a weakened partner who is not only losing the confidence of his major foreign allies, but also the support of militias in the capital and finds himself increasingly undermined by his own colleagues in Tripoli.
Click here to read the analysis.