In a tectonic shift, after the failure of the UN-mediated process for months, the Libyan-Libyan dialogue has achieved a signed agreement on principles within just a few weeks. The agreement isn't a peace deal and although it proposes the creation of a new government it should be seen as a way to counteract any hope that the UN process and the GNA will be stood up. It forestalls that by discrediting it. So instead of having two illegitimate parliaments (GNC and HoR) the country could have 2 illegitimate parliaments and two quasi-legitimate rival national unity governments. Oh Libya how we love you. So in short wouldn't hold my breath for immediate impact because Libya is still Libya, but still there are some immediate big implications: The deal will impact the Constitutional drafting committee (CDC) . The announcement to go back to 1963 constitution and a new 5+5 committee is a big departure from the CDC progress to date, of which nothing has come. The CDC has a make-or-break meeting next Monday.Big questions remaining are: 1. This new framework for a peace deal in Libya which was just signed in Tunis, what makes it different than the UN-mediated peace agreement which took a year to negotiate and then was never signed? Does it have a greater chance of bringing Libya's many stakeholders together?
2. Is the signing of this deal likely to have any immediate impacts on the ground, especially relative to the fight against ISIS in Sirte? And if not, what would be needed to actually forge a common front against the jihadis?
3. Since the Paris attacks what has Western and UN strategy towards Libya been? Have the main international players sought a plan to combat the emergence of Libya as a potential fallback position if ISIS suffers setbacks in the Levant?
If you are in the media and want to hear more about my answers to the above. Give a holler