Clashes break out in Tripoli, undermining the fragile ceasefire

Throughout the last week, the Libyan National Army (LNA) made advances and gained control of areas in Abu Salim and Haddaba, in southern Tripoli. The LNA forces also attempted to make advances along Airport Road, seeing anti-LNA forces withdraw and civilians removed from Saleem Street and Crown Prince Street. Minor clashes were reported in Abu Salim, Ain Zara, Ramla, Saedia, Tughar, Salahuddin, Habda al-Mashru, and along Airport Road. The Russia-Turkey mediated ceasefire came into force on 12 January. However, a formal agreement was never signed between the two parties and the Berlin conference on 19 January failed to pressure or persuade them to agree to terms. It is worth noting that there have been no aerial attacks by anti-LNA forces since the ceasefire came into effect. However, just in the last week, there have been at least four LNA aerial bombardments and LNA forces have made further advances towards Misrata. Neither side has formally renounced the ceasefire, but their actions on the ground have largely rendered it obsolete.While the ceasefire is “officially” still intact, the LNA’s various incursions upon multiple different southern Tripoli axes, as well as its moves towards Misrata, point to a reality on the ground, in which the ceasefire is suffering the same fate as the arms embargo – to be breached and ignored. The fighting has not been severe at this stage – most likely to placate an international audience so soon after the Berlin Conference and to give each side the opportunity to bolster their current capabilities. However, the intensity of the fighting is likely to gradually ramp up in the coming week, in the form of a large-scale assault by either side on critical locations.