Covert Intervention? Air Strike in Tripoli Sparks Anxiety Over Foreign Role in Libya

During the night between Sunday and Monday, Tripoli witnessed a targeted airstrike on positions and arsenals belonging to forces of the so called "Operation Dawn" led by Misratan militias. Several reports indicate that targets were hit with laser guided bombs delivered from an altitude of 7-8 Km, making this an operation well beyond the capabilities of what is left of Libya's Air Forces. Furthermore, airplanes belonging to General Haftar could have not carried out such operation due to the necessity to re-fuel midway between their bases in eastern Libya and the targets in Tripoli, something beyond their operational capability.

The state of confusion and anxiety sparked by the over night attack is well captured by an article on the National Post by Maamoun Youssef:

In a statement, the government demanded the chief of staff and military intelligence to investigate the predawn strikes Monday morning targeting positions of militias originally from the coastal city of Misrata and its Islamist allies.

The strikes, under the cover of darkness, sparked fears that a foreign country like Italy carried out the attack, as the Libyan military does not have aircraft that can fly at night, according to a former colonel in the Libyan air force. Libya’s newly elected parliament recently asked the United Nations to protect its civilians and stop the fighting. Italy’s ambassador to Libya even went on local television to say his country was not involved.

Later during the day, Haftar forces have claimed responsibility for the attack, describing it as an operation carried out with the support of unspecified international partners.

Whilst the House of Representatives is planning its work for the week ahead, this news is likely to further invigorate the zero-sum logic driving both Operation Dignity and Operation Dawn forces. In particular, despite mediation efforts being carried out by UN and EU delegations in the city of Misrata following on the appointment of a new UN Special Envoy for Libya, Misratan forces might feel pressured into a corner by both internal and external forces and decide to further escalate confrontation. In this sense, even emerging rumors of joint combat exercises to be carried out by air forces of the "5+5 Defence Initiative" countries, in preparation for potential attacks coming from Libya, are likely to stir up even more tension in the Islamist camp.