In his latest article with Middle East Eye Jason Pack, the founder of Libya Analysis, discusses General Haftar’s latest series of move and how they have impacted Libya and the international community. While Haftar’s justification for his decision to handover the control of the al-Sidra and Ras Lanuf oil terminals to the Eastern- based National Oil Corporation (NOC) was to end the corruption and inequitable distribution of resources from the Tripoli-based Central Bank of Libya (CBL), Pack argues that Haftar’s true motive are to challenge the international community over who should be considered "legitimate" in the divided country. However, Pack identifies that this move could backfire:
Strategically, his projected image of military prowess combined with a joint federalist and nationalist political agenda (i.e. more resources for the east and ending corruption within the central bank which affects all Libyans) is finding resonance. However, Haftar's gambit is likely to be short-lived if it doesn't culminate in economic reform. Libya’s economy is on the verge of collapse and, with the hot summer months looming ahead, electricity blackouts, interminable lines at petrol stations, and food shortages will become even more common place.
According to Pack, Haftar’s decision could have severe consequences on Libya and its population, and push Haftar to adopt unexpected positions.
Yet by actively undertaking a step which promotes separate eastern institutions, there is a danger that if the move fails to quickly produce concrete results, Haftar will be forced to make an unexpected choice: either backdown by making a U-turn and relinquishing control to the NOC or embrace a separatist stance. Haftar is usually thought of as Libya's master strategist. Malicious, maybe, but certainly far-sighted. Compared to other major Libyan figures who completely lack political experience, this appraisal may be true, but in this instance, the rogue general has unleashed a range of forces that are beyond any single man to contain.
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