The Atlantic Council's Karim Mezran argues that an agreement laying the foundations for a Government of National Accord is, at best, a first step. At worst, spoilers from either the House of Representatives or General National Congress could shatter the negotiations' progress, paving the way for intensified internal, regional, and even global conflict:
Although Libya would certainly face difficult years of post-conflict reconstruction, it remains the best foreseeable conclusion to UN-led negotiations. There is no guarantee, however, that all parties will unanimously accept the final draft agreement. If rejected by either party, the deal falls through and the international community will have no best-case scenario. Without a deal, a political vacuum would reemerge, which the various militias, jihadist groups, and criminal gangs would likely fill.To read more, click here.