Misrata-Sirte coastal road reopening still uncertain

On 20 June, the Prime Minister of the Government of National Unity (GNU), Abdul Hameed Dabaiba, declared that the Misrata-Sirte coastal road had reopened after months of closure. However, despite Dabaiba’s announcement, Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) forces have kept the road closed. The leader of the LNA delegation for the JMC, Emraje al-Ammami, stated that the reopening of the coastal road was false and that the 5+5 Joint Military Commission (JMC) would be the one deciding upon its reopening. On 21 June, representatives from the 5+5 JMC along with United National Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) arrived in Sirte for talks on the reopening of the coastal road. The JMC agreed to postpone the reopening of the road until damages had been repaired and security arrangements have been made, with checkpoints clearly assigned to security units.The coastal road between Misrata and Sirte has been closed since April 2019. The reopening of the coastal road is a part of the UN mediated ceasefire agreement of October 2020 and the UN has pushed for its reopening as a part of the military track of reconciliation efforts, as well as to facilitate civilian travel and commerce between eastern and western Libya. The JMC has discussed the reopening as a priority in its recent meetings.Misratan forces from the Sirte-Jufra Operations Room under the command of Ibraheem Bait al-Mal have been blockading the road on the Misrata side. They had recently doubled down on their position that they would not reopen the blockade until they had been compensated for their role in the 2019-2020 fighting and until the foreign forces supporting the LNA had withdrawn from Libya. It is understood that their main motivation was to secure funds from the GNU before reopening the road, and it appears this may have occurred. Documents from the GNU Emergency Budget (Law 144) were recently revealed showing that the Misratan-aligned forces would be receiving a total of 7.655 million LYD for 5 months’ worth of back payments for its fighters (1,000 LYD a month for five months for 1,531 fighters).The reopening of the coastal road would represent a notable positive development in the UN-mediated peace process and would have generated significant political momentum ahead of the Berlin 2.0 conference on 23 June – any actor who could claim responsibility for this achievement would likely strengthen their international legitimacy and credibility. Dabaiba likely received news of the road’s imminent opening and sought to present himself as the champion of the process – despite his open aversion to engaging with military unification or security issues. Likewise, Haftar has likely chosen to delay giving the order for his forces to reopen the road on the Sirte side until the 5+5 JMC has made a formal announcement, thereby removing this potential political boon from Dabaiba and reasserting his influence over the security sector in the process. Any efforts to secure a permanent reopening of the road are likely to remain fragile.