Despite the international circle’s polite applause for the supposed establishment of a Government of National Accord (GNA), the situation on the ground in Libya is far less cordial and congratulatory. The Tobruq-based House of Representatives (HoR) appears on the verge of collapse, the GNC is faring little better. The legitimacy of all Libyan institutions hangs in the balance, endangering not only political, but also economic and security, interests.Since the HoR’s 19 October announcement that it would not accept the GNA, tensions have escalated. Members supporting the dialogue process have been harassed and accused of treason. When around a thousand gathered in Benghazi’s Kish Square on 24 October to protest against UNSMIL, Leon, and the proposed GNA, the demonstrators were fired on, and nine were killed. The disaster spurred HoR President Ageela Salah Gwaider to call for General Haftar’s swift and decisive action against terrorists, which seems to have taken the form of the most intense urban fighting against Benghazi Revolutionary Shura Council forces in months and led to one of the city’s bloodiest weeks this year. Social campaigns calling for Haftar to bomb the ports and airports of Misrata, Khoms and Tripoli have also intensified.Haftar’s control, however, is far from absolute. In Derna, the fragile Derna Mujahideen Shura Council (DMSC) – LNA alliance against IS narrowly avoided rupture. Likewise, in the oil crescent, tensions between the Petroleum Facilities Guard under the command of Federalist Ibrahim Jadhran and supporters of Haftar and the LNA continued to rise, even as local extremist forces flexed their muscles. A recent conflagration in Sabratha led LNA leadership to explicitly reprimand their local ‘affiliates’, and the relationship has only deteriorated since.Security in Tripoli is breaking down along with the political process. Clashes erupted between rival militias over control of some areas in the largest municipality, which is under the authority of Abdul Ghani Al Kikkly, a moderate Islamist but ardent Libya Dawn supporter. Armed militias also shot and injured Taher Makni, a Tebu GNC member, and another police lieutenant was assassinated. Following their defeat at the battle of Sabratha, hard-line local combatants believed to be linked to Ansar Al Sharia in Sabratha distanced themselves from Libya Dawn, members of which IS has deemed apostates.Several attacks have been carried out against IS, but there have been additional reports of airdrops and supplies (all undertaken by unidentified aircraft). These contradictory incidents highlight complex relationships that threaten to further undermine political processes, especially in the case of collapse. As partnerships at the national level continue to deteriorate, it may be time for the international community to look local. Already shrewdly manoeuvring alliances to secure ports and counter IS, smaller municipal groups may hold the key to averting disastrous fallout from what appears to be a moribund high-level political process.
Pick up the Pieces: As the National-Level Dialogue Exacerbates Tensions, Perhaps It’s Time to Turn Towards a Local Approach