Rhiannon Smith and Lachlan Wilson have written an article for the Middle East Eye exploring the potential ramifications of a stalled UN process. In the wake of the UN's new Joint Drafting Committee for Libya concluding its second round of meetings in Tunis without agreeing on any amendments to the Libyan Political Agreement or scheduling a date for when they will reconvene, the authors argue:
If amendments to the LPA cannot be agreed upon, the whole process will be stalled. This situation may provide military strongman Khalifa Haftar an opportunity to pursue his preference for a military solution to the crisis and see him set his eyes on capturing the nation’s capital, Tripoli.
Smith and Wilson expand upon Haftar's interest in a military solution, suggesting:
"Haftar is very unlikely to have the capacity to take control of Tripoli by force without a strong alliance with local militias, or a significant groundswell of popular support. Furthermore, a direct assault on the GNA or against civilians is likely to cause widespread international condemnation and jeopardise the relationships Haftar has been carefully cultivating with the West, in particular Italy and France.However, to be welcomed into Tripoli as a legitimate "liberating" force would be a dream come true for Haftar. In that scenario, it is hard to see why he would ever relinquish the reins of power to anyone else in the future.
Click here to read the article in full.