Libya Back in the Limelight, Will Actors on The Ground Capitalize from it?

As written yesterday and in the previous days, the ongoing crisis in Libya is deepening with no side capable of achieving a significant breakthrough, whether in battle or in negotiations. This violent stalemate has progressively engulfed civilian areas and state infrastructures into the battle, spurring several Libyans to temporarily abandon the country via land routes to “wait out” the fighting.

In an article for the New York Times, Kareem Fahim reflects on the symbolic and moral importance that the devastation occurred in Tripoli’s airport has had in spurring people to leave:

The battle for the airport has left it a gutted symbol of a disintegrating state. Lost in the rubble of the airport was the sense of collective purpose that seemed to unite Libyans not so long ago, during the revolt.“If you’re willing to destroy your airport — that idea of national sovereignty, that we’re all in this together, then the issue of national identity is simply not as important as everyone thought it would be,” said Dirk Vandewalle, an associate professor at Dartmouth College and an expert on Libya who has visited regularly since the revolution.

Realising that the latest Libyan crisis was not going to defuse itself from within, as it often happened in the recent past, international actors have increased their focus on events. The renewed sense of urgency about Libya is well reflect by a recent tweet of Italy’s PM Matteo Renzi, who indicated events in the north African country as his only serious concern in this moment. However, it remains unclear what this renewed interest will concretely translate into and if any actor on the ground will be able to capitalise from it.

The Libya Herald quoted Libya’s UN representative Ibrahim al-Dabashi threatening militias with a statement hinting at a possible hands-on approach from Western countries to the ongoing violence, as seen in 2011, and to future prosecution from the ICC. However, a conference call between US and EU leaders has so far led to a mere renewal of statements of support for the House of Representatives and for a bigger role to be played by the UN. Messages coming from the ground are likely to further embolden militias in their battle, as diplomatic missions are being progressively shut down and foreign expats evacuated from the country, the Libyan government struggle to gather international support for extinguishing the fire in Tripoli fuel tankers. Furthermore, public opinion in Western countries seems to be headed in a different direction than in 2011. This s well reflected by the wealth of op-eds and articles that are being published in these hours portraying and analysing events in Libya only through the prism of the NATO-led intervention; focusing on settling old scores of internal politics and over-exaggerating the importance that Western countries have had in the brewing of the ongoing crisis.