LNA claims to have captured Aziziyya

On 21 October, the Libyan National Army (LNA)’s al-Karama Operations Room released a statement claiming to have captured Aziziyya, the strategically important town 40km south of Tripoli, and taken control of the al-Zahra bridge. However, contrasting reports suggest that the LNA does not have full control of Aziziyya but is pushing hard to achieve it. Both the LNA and anti-LNA forces reported heavy fighting and claimed to have inflicted large casualties on their opponents. Anti-LNA forces are reported to have attempted a counterattack on Ain Zara and Khalat al-Furjan in response to the LNA’s moves in Aziziyya, but the LNA claimed to have defended against it.Over the last week, the LNA has intensified its aerial attacks in Tripoli and Misrata, with a notable shift towards targeting specific military headquarters and operational control centers rather than locations on the front lines in southern Tripoli. This ramp up in attacks and tactical shift towards targeting specific military headquarters and operational control centers appears as being part of a broader LNA push to try and take Aziziyya and gain more territory around Tripoli, and to strengthen its narrative that it is capable of taking control of Tripoli by force.This shift may have been triggered by the delay of the Berlin conference until April 2020, or the perceived strengthening of the GNA’s international standing after high level interactions in the US last week. If the LNA were able to take and hold the Aziziyya area, then anti-LNA forces in Ghariyan would be geographically isolated from support forces in southern Tripoli, weakening their ability to defend the location should the LNA push to re-capture the mountain town. However, It is unlikely that the LNA will succeed in maintaining control over Aziziyya in the longer term due to its limited manpower capacities.Over the course of the past days, an increasing number of reports have denounced the impact of the fighting in Southern Tripoli on civilians, caught in the crossfire.