Stalemate persists in fighting for the control of Tripoli

On 12 December, in a brief televised video on the pro-LNA al-Hadath TV channel, the head of the Libyan National Army (LNA) Khalifa Haftar announced a new 'Zero Hour' for all his units stationed in southern Tripoli. Haftar told his troops that “today we begin the decisive advancement to the heart of the capital.” In his speech Haftar said that his forces’ victory was inevitably and urged all those who had joined the militias and terrorist groups in Tripoli to withdraw immediately.In response, Government of National Accord (GNA) head Fayez al-Serraj called Haftar’s speech the ''zero of illusions'' and urged his forces and what he called the “17th February Revolution” fighters to stand against the LNA. The LNA has announced at least four “Zero Hours” since the conflict began on 4 April 2019, with none leading to any notable gains or changes in strategy by the LNA. So far, this latest announcement seems to be following the same pattern. The timing of the speech was likely motivated by Turkey’s strengthening relationship with the GNA and its announced intentions to make a partial deployment of forces and/or provision of advanced weapons to the anti-LNA coalition forces in Tripoli.As the conflict drags on and resources, manpower and morale come under strain, it is becoming increasing vital for the LNA to make a quick entry to Tripoli. Haftar’s speech is likely intended to serve as an attempted catalyst for a renewed push but also as a way to retake control of the narrative in Tripoli and posture to its international backers, domestic supporters and opponents in Tripoli that it is on the brink of making significant gains. While it is possible that the LNA may succeed in advancing into Tripoli, this is unlikely to signal an 'end' to the conflict – there is likely to be persistent street fighting with extreme deterioration in security, in addition to significant cost in human casualties and severe damages to infrastructure.